Timothy Ross's Posts

Year End 2018 from the New York Times

Posted by Timothy Ross on December 24, 2018 at 10:25am

December 24, 2018

Good Monday morning. Breaking: An NYT examination of mass shootings over the past decade reveals how the banking and credit card industry have played a crucial, if unwitting, role in the planning of these massacres. Andrew reviewed hundreds of documents including police reports, bank records and investigator notes, and lays out how the financial industry could help to prevent future attacks.

Christmas time outside the New York Stock Exchange. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Today, we’re going to take a look back at what happened on Wall Street in 2018. The DealBook team will be taking a break until Jan. 2, so until then, happy holidays to you and yours! (Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here.)

This year was great for deal making. Until it wasn’t.

Companies announced a record $2.3 trillion in acquisitions through the first six months of the year, according to data from Refinitiv. That was fueled by three main factors:

• A stronger economy. After almost a decade of lackluster growth globally, the American economy appeared to be at its strongest in years and business confidence was high.

• A windfall from the tax overhaul and continued low interest rates meant that coffers were full and debt was cheap.

• Continued fears of Silicon Valleyand its growing ambitions, particularly in areas like health care and the media, made consolidation look vital.

But uncertainty can bring an end to deal making. By the second half of the year, there was plenty of uncertainty. Plunging markets, an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, signs that the global economy is slowing and the pace of the Federal Reserve’s rate increases all raised questions about the health of the world’s economy.

That weighed on corporate minds. By the second half of the year, executives had become more cautious and deal activity slowed. Just $1.6 trillion worth of deals were struck worldwide from July 1 to Dec. 21.

So approach 2018’s blockbuster M.&.A. numbers with caution, because they’re heavily skewed toward the first half of the year. Here are two examples:

• Cross-border deals hit $1.54 trillion. That’s up 33 percent from a year earlier and the highest level in more than a decade. But just $500 billion in acquisitions were announced in the second half of the year, a 50 percent drop from the first six months.

• Big deals skyrocketed. Acquirers announced 123 transactions valued at more than $5 billion in 2018, worth a total of $1.5 trillion — a 70 percent increase from 2017 and the second-highest level on record. But little more than 30 percent of those deals were announced in the second half.

And one final note of caution. If history is any indicator, peaks in deal making are not necessarily a cause for celebration: There was record M.&A. activity in 1989, 2000 and 2007, and each peak was followed within months by a recession.

____________________________

Today’s DealBook Briefing was written by Andrew Ross Sorkin, Stephen Grocer and Peter Eavis in New York, and Jamie Condliffe in London.

____________________________

What about China and Europe?

China retreated from the global M.&.A market. Chinese companies continued to slow their purchases of foreign firms after having embarked on a global shopping spree that peaked in 2016. The value of deals made beyond China’s borders slipped to $115 billion in 2018, down 45 percent from two years ago.

Europe slammed on the brakes.M.&A. activity in the region during the second half of the year tumbled 60 percent from the first six months, the steepest slowdown of any region in the world. Blame falls in part to a host of political issues: Britain’s tortuous path toward withdrawing from the European Union, the struggles of a populist leadership in Italy, and, most recently, a public backlash against the government in France. Economic growth has also slowed in several European countries.

Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Unicorns roared onto American exchanges

This year was the strongest for initial public offerings since 2014. (That was the year Alibaba skewed the numbers with its $25 billion I.P.O.) In all, companies raised $209 billion globally through I.P.O.s, up 6 percent from a year ago, according to Dealogic.

Unicorns made waves. In the U.S., 38 companies listed on American exchanges each with a value of more than $1 billion — the most since the heady days of the dot-com boom in 2000, according to Dealogic. Those deals helped lift the value of U.S.-listed I.P.O.s to more than $61 billion.

The procession of unicorns going public could continue into 2019. The list of tech companies with $1 billion valuations looking to make their public market debut next year is long: Uber, Lyft, Airbnb, Pinterest, Slack and Palantir are among those set to embark on I.P.O.s. Expect many of the I.P.O.s to be in the first half of the year. But the recent market volatility and investors’ recent aversion to risk may make it difficult for some to make it out. And the window for I.P.O.s could close suddenly if a recession hits.

But the real I.P.O. action was in Asia

The biggest I.P.O.s of the year happened on exchanges in Asia. SoftBank raised $21.3 billion floating shares of its mobile unit in Tokyo. China Tower raised $7.5 billion in Hong Kong, and Xiaomi also sold $5.4 billion worth of stock there.

But there was no shortage of Asian listings on U.S. exchanges. Tencent Music’s debut on the New York Stock Exchange this month capped a wave of Chinese companies going public in America. In total, 33 Chinese firms raised $9.2 billion through initial public offerings on American exchanges — up 140 percent from 2017 and the highest level since 2014.

In fact, China dominated U.S. public offerings this year. The three largest I.P.O.s by market value were all Chinese companies. And China accounted for four of the 10 largest I.P.O.s on American exchanges this year, the most of any country including the U.S.

Why the rush to list in America? President Trump’s trade war with China may have played a role. A slowdown in Chinese economic growth has accompanied the escalating trade tensions and has dragged down stock markets in Hong Kong and China. At the lows in late October, the Hang Seng stock index and benchmark stock markets in Shenzhen and Shanghai were down 15 percent to 35 percent for the year. By comparison, the S&P 500 was still up 2.5 percent at that point, making it far more attractive for offerings.

Brendan Mcdermid/Reuters

The year’s markets in a single world: Volatile

The stock markets were defined in 2018 by record highs followed by steep sell-offs. Investors piled into the biggest tech companies, pushing the market values of Amazon and Apple above $1 trillion. But soon investors were dumping tech shares, sending the Nasdaq into a bear market for the first time since the financial crisis. Companies handed back more than a $1 trillion to investors through buybacks and dividends. But markets were also whipsawed by fears of slowing global economic growth, rising interest rates and trade wars.

Investors had plenty of reason to be optimistic at the beginning of the year. Inflation was tame and interest rates remained low. After years of slow growth, the economy was strengthening. And there were hopes that the tax overhaul passed late last year would supercharge the economy and corporate profits.

But as 2018 comes to a close, the longest bull market in history is having its worst year since it started nearly a decade ago. Almost every major type of investment has fared poorly: Stock markets in America, Europe and Asia are all suffering from double-digit percentage losses, while commodities and bonds have tumbled.

Risks are now everywhere. The lift provided by the tax cuts has faded. The U.S.-China trade war has taken a toll on global growth. The Fed has staked out a more aggressive path to raise rates than many investors had hoped, which means the costs of borrowing are rising. And oil prices have plunged. Things look bleak.

What’s in store for stocks in 2019

Despite it all, Wall Street analysts predict that the S&P 500 will rise next year.

“The market path in 2019 will depend on investor perception of the longevity of the current economic expansion,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note. “We expect U.S. economic growth will decelerate but remain positive for several years.”

Predictions for growth vary, but most analysts estimate that the value of the S&P 500, which currently lies at about 2,400, could reach 2,750 to 3,300 by the end of 2019. Goldman Sachs predicts that it will hit 3,000, which would be a 24 percent increase from current levels.

But there are still reasons to be pessimistic. Here’s what could spook investors next year:

• The global economy looks set for a slowdown. Fifty-three percent of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America Merrill Lynch expected global growth to weaken over the next 12 months. That’s the worst outlook on the global economy since October 2008.

• The Fed could tighten monetary policy too far. In 2018, concerns about the central bank bringing an end to the bull market with rate increases prompted two sell-offs. Fund managers continue to rank the Fed’s tightening among the biggest risks to the market. “The Fed should be prepared to recognize that financial conditions will soon be sufficiently tight that any further tightening might kill the very expansion it is trying to extend,” write Deutsche Bank strategists.

• Peak earnings are probably behind us. Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report average earnings growth of 8.3 percent and revenue growth of 5.5 percent in 2019, according to FactSet. By comparison, S&P 500 earnings are forecast to grow 20.5 percent this year and revenue 8.9 percent.

The Goldman Sachs headquarters in Lower Manhattan. John Taggart for The New York Times

It was an excellent year for banks. You’d never guess.

A lot went right for banks in 2018. They were big beneficiaries of the tax overhaul enacted at the end of 2017. The Trump administration started what may become a bonanza of deregulation for them. The economy grew. Interest rates increased, bolstering profit from lending. Over all, banks’ earnings are expected to surge 34 percent in 2018. In June, Jamie Dimon, the C.E.O. of JPMorgan Chase, talked about “a golden age of banking.”

But the markets simply shrugged. The S&P 500 financials index, which measures the performance of bank stocks, is down 16 percent in 2018, compared with a 7 percent decline in the wider stock market.

Why the poor performance? Investors were clearly unimpressed, and there are two obvious reasons:

• They may have simply been impatient. It will take time to tell whether deregulation will have a significant effect on banks’ bottom lines, and investors may not have been willing to wait it out.

• Banks didn’t lend at the pace many had hoped. Companies that benefited from strong cash flows after the tax cuts may not have needed as much credit. And rising interest rates may have reduced demand for loans among some borrowers.

Looking into 2019, much depends on interest rates and the economy:

• If the Fed raises interest rates by more than expected and the economy slows, banks could be hit hard. Wall Street business would suffer, demand for loans would decline and more borrowers could default, causing losses for banks.

• If the Fed manages to set rates at a level that keeps the economy growing at close to current rates, and inflation is dormant, bank earnings should hold up. But as 2018 has shown, that may not be enough for investors.

Brendan Mcdermid/Reuters

The big question: Is a recession looming?

The short answer: probably. The longer answer: It’s complicated, and opinion is divided over when it might happen.

There are some early warning signs. But so far we’re mainly seeing signals flashing orange, not red:

• The market slide at the end of the year was one. After ignoring trade wars, rising interest rates and a slowing global economy for months, investors finally got spooked, threatening the longest bull run on record. But markets don’t generally crash simply because a recovery has been going on for a while.

• Inversion of the yield curve is another. Essentially the difference between interest rates on short- and long-term government bonds, the curve is seen as a predictor of recession. The spread between three- and five-year yields briefly went negative at the start of December. But economists view the two- to 10-year spread as a better signifier of impending recession, and even then only when it is inverted for a sustained period. So far, that hasn’t happened.

• Some economic indicators point toward a slowdown. Sales of new and existing homes have softened in recent months and auto sales have been falling, suggesting that clouds are on the horizon. But unemployment is at its lowest level in a half-century, job growth remains strong, wages are beginning to rise faster and consumer spending has been growing at a healthy pace.

“It’s foolish to ignore all these thingsand say they don’t matter at all,” David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution, told the NYT. “But it’s also foolish to think that there’s some sort of law of physics here.”

And if we are headed into recession, we don’t know when. Opinion among economists and business leaders about timing is torn:

• Over half of the economists polled by the WSJ expect a recession to start in 2020, and slightly more than one in four expects one in 2021. Just one in 10 predicts a recession next year.

• Economists surveyed by Reuters put the chances of a recession in the next two years at 40 percent.

• A survey of chief financial officers found that nearly half expect a recession in 2019, as did a similar proportion of business leaders at the Yale C.E.O. Summit.

In others words: Keep your wits about you in 2019.

Thanks for reading! We’ll see you in the New Year.

You can find live updates throughout the day at nytimes.com/dealbook

Happiness report 2018

Posted by Timothy Ross on December 22, 2018 at 2:02pm

Well, the annual happiness report shows Canada in the top 10. #7

the report shows Canada is a bit less happy then it was a year ago, no improvement, down about 5% globally making it about 100 in the improvement category, loading about 5% overall.

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/measuring-global-happiness-countries/

What does that mean, not much, simply things are not as sunny as they were last year. Carbon taxes, failed pipeline misadventures, uncompetitive tax rates, falling oil prices and a government trying desperately to improve its leaders social opinions on the population, other than that everything is pretty good. Let’s not forget we are well positioned in case of a depression or recession the government feels we can handle a flood well. We think it’s about water, maybe he meant the proposed immigration targets of a million people over the next three years. So much going on, hard to follow it all. Let’s nit forget Cannabis is legal now and a guaranteed income for everyone is being proposed. The budget will be balanced with debt in the interim and by 2040 government taxes will match government expenses. So it’s not so bad. Future is looking like blue skies, and the morning skies are a glow, as they, sailors take warning.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, and may 2019 bring you faith, hope, health, prosperity and the love of our Lord in your heart.

Tim

Jokes for the kid in you

Posted by Timothy Ross on December 21, 2018 at 6:16pm

http://www.fatherly.com/play/50-short-dumb-jokes-kids-love-anyway

50. What do you call an old snowman?

Water!

49. Why are ghosts such bad liars?

Because you can see right through them.

48. Why is Santa always so happy?

He likes to live in the present!

47. How do you catch a whole school of fish?

With bookworms.

6. What is a witch’s favorite subject in school?

Spelling!

45. Why didn’t the zombie go to school?

He felt rotten!

44. What did one plate say to the other plate?

Dinner’s on me!

43. What kind of shoes do ninjas wear?

Sneakers.

42. Why did the cookie go to the hospital?

Because he felt crummy.

41. How do mountains stay warm in winter?

Snowcaps.

40. Why do artists constantly feel cold?

Because they’re surrounded by drafts.

39. Why did the pony get sent to his room?

He wouldn’t stop horsing around.

. What do you call a cow that eats your grass?

A lawn moo-er.

37. Why do fish live in salt water?

Because pepper makes them sneeze!

36. What did the Dalmatian say after lunch?

That hit the spot!

35. Why can’t a leopard hide?

Because he’s always spotted!

4. Why should you not let a bear operate the remote?

He will keep pressing the paws button.

33. What is a robot’s favorite snack?

Computer chips.

2. What did one plate say to the other plate?

Dinner is on me!

31. What does a nosey pepper do?

Gets jalapeño business!

30. Why did the banana go to the hospital?

He was peeling really bad.

29. Why did Mickey Mouse take a trip into space?

He was looking for his buddy, Pluto.

28. What are the two things you can’t have for breakfast?

Lunch and dinner.

27. Where do you learn to make banana splits?

At sundae school.

26. What did the limestone say to the geologist?

Don’t take me for granite!

25. What kind of dinosaur loves to sleep?

A stega-snore-us.

24. Why do seagulls live by the sea?

Because if they lived by the bay, they’d be bagels!

23. What bone will a dog never eat?

A Trombone.

22. Why did the dinosaur cross the road?

To eat the chickens on the other side.

21. Why did the man get fired from the orange juice factory?

Lack of concentration.

20. When will the little snake arrive?

I don’t know, but he won’t be long.

19. What’s the biggest moth in the world?

A mammoth.

18. What do you get if you cross a frog with a rabbit?

A bunny ribbit.

17. What type of markets do dogs avoid?

Flea markets!

16. What do music and chickens have in common?

Bach, Bach, Bach!

15. Why aren’t dogs good dancers?

They have two left feet.

14. What do you call a blind dinosaur?

A do-you-think-he-saw-us.

13. What did one penny say to another penny?

We make cents.

12. What kind of lion never roars?

A dandelion!

11. Why did the clock go to the principal’s office?

For tocking too much.

10. Why did the man put his money in the freezer?

He wanted cold hard cash!

9. What do you call a funny mountain?

Hill-arious.

8. Why did the man run around his bed?

He was trying to catch up on sleep!

7. Why do dragons sleep during the day?

So they can fight knights!

6. Why can’t Cinderella play soccer?

Because she’s always running away from the ball.

5. What did the zero say to the eight?

Nice belt!

4. Why is the grass so dangerous?

It’s full of blades.

3. Why is it so windy inside a sports arena?

All those fans.

2. Why did the student eat his homework?

Because his teacher told him it was a piece of cake!

1. What’s worse than finding a worm in your apple?

Finding half a worm.

"Everybody I know who is funny, it's in them. You can teach timing, or some people are able to tell a joke, though I don't like to tell jokes. But I think you have to be born with a sense of humor and a sense of timing." ~ Carol Burnett

Smoking Vice business

Posted by Timothy Ross on December 21, 2018 at 6:23am

“Altria will pay a USD$2 billion bonus to Juul's 1,500 employees as part of the price for its stake in the e-cigarette maker. While that averages out to USD$1.3 million a head, actual payouts in the form of special dividends will depend on factors such as longevity at the company, CNBC says. The maker of Marlboro cigarettes is paying a total $12.8 billion for a 35% stake, valuing the California startup at $38 billion. Juul recently said employees can only vape outside company facilities to conform with laws governing the use of tobacco in the workplace. • Here’s what people are saying.

Wow, nice vice bonus 1.3 million average for 1500

Many may know, in our own area in Smiths Falls, Canopy Growth has created over 100 millionaires that work at this local company. I understand everyone that works there is a shareholder of some sorts. Those early employees got vested early and have benefited immensely for working their buts off and taking a chance on a new industry.

Employees investing in the company they work for is a very good thing. I see many examples of this happening with those that are public companies and some private companies. Good lessons here for private companies and employees to work towards.

Tim

Business Scaling Tips

Posted by Timothy Ross on December 19, 2018 at 7:19am

great quick overview about the challenges of growing

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/steps-scaling-your-business/

great pic from last nights Rotary Christmas Ham packing workshop.

Real Estate Tips

Posted by Timothy Ross on December 18, 2018 at 6:24am

https://www.realtor.com/videos/these-trends-will-shape-the-real-estate-market-in-2019/403a1091-3062-442b-beec-2faa666b3e19?playlist_id=ec2ed8e8-16a1-46f8-a91e-c6753b0417e0

came across this site today from one of my realtors in my network

figure will store some real estate info on this posting as a resource

Enjoy

Timothy Ross, Family Advisor ©

Family Office providing Omega Stewardship ©

Www.BrockShoresFinancial.ca

613-345-0016 Office

613-213-4625 Cell/Text advisor@timothyross.com

Helping Families Achieve...Life’s Major Goals ©

OMEGA STEWARDSHIP ©

* One Stop Process Driven Approach for Retirement & Income Planning

* Personalized Tax Management Solutions for Individuals & Business Owners

* Confidential Wealth Management Solutions

Mutual Funds through PEAK Investment Services Inc.

Brock Shores Financial #ImprovingFutures

Learn, Engage, Develop, Goals, Enjoy, Responsible ... Join our new online community” © at www.ImprovingFutures.ca

Oh boy did you know them

Posted by Timothy Ross on December 18, 2018 at 5:52am

Famous Last Words (Part 1 of 2) - Broadcast - Truth For Life https://www.truthforlife.org/broadcasts/2018/12/18/famous-last-words-part-1-of-2/

Some good thoughts to consider, what are going to do in those last years, 60 to 110 ? Maybe 110 is out of reach, yet more people are getting closer and with the advances in nutrition and health care, a return to our old age potential is quite real. So, consider the possibility. Even if you only get to 90, or 80 or 70 , what are you going to do to make a difference , what great adventures are in store for you. What love and wisdom can you pass on?

What will your legacy be ?

Let’s not forget, We are blessed , don’t check out, explore your purpose, “Be The Adventure”

I hope you enjoy this song, “Blessed”

https://youtu.be/b8CXJzsDVH4

Tim

Engage

Timothy Ross, Family Advisor ©

Family Office providing Omega Stewardship ©

Www.BrockShoresFinancial.ca

613-345-0016 Office

613-213-4625 Cell/Text advisor@timothyross.com

Helping Families Achieve...Life’s Major Goals ©

OMEGA STEWARDSHIP ©

* One Stop Process Driven Approach for Retirement & Income Planning

* Personalized Tax Management Solutions for Individuals & Business Owners

* Confidential Wealth Management Solutions

Mutual Funds through PEAK Investment Services Inc.

Brock Shores Financial #ImprovingFutures

Learn, Engage, Develop, Goals, Enjoy, Responsible ... Join our new online community” © at www.ImprovingFutures.ca

Getting along

Posted by Timothy Ross on December 15, 2018 at 4:57pm

https://www.fatherly.com/love-money/relationships/parenting-strategies-advice/secret-co-parenting-holidays/

Online Security Tools

Posted by Timothy Ross on December 14, 2018 at 3:05pm

lots to consider in this space

https://www.fastcompany.com/90270394/the-digital-privacy-tools-you-need-to-be-using-now

Launching your idea - debt thoughts

Posted by Timothy Ross on December 13, 2018 at 7:19am

Idea of the Day: When starting a new business, be careful about taking on more liabilities prematurely, says Lisa Unwin, founder of She's Back.

“I’ve just seen a fabulous business, run by two amazing, energetic, committed women, go to the wall because they ran up too many debts before the cash came in. I believe the term is overtrading. Don’t do it.”

Some inspirational thoughts

Remember, follow your heart

https://youtu.be/a5SMyfbWYyE

Keep your affairs in order

Core principles from Apple leader

https://youtu.be/eHzAtxW3TzY

Think different, Be The Adventure, Be Blessed, Be

TLR

METR observance add the P’s

Posted by Timothy Ross on December 12, 2018 at 9:32am

https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/market-talk/tax-burdens-are-overlooking-a-key-element-says-c-d--howe-251805.aspx

“The Heavy Weights” and the top of the scale for business is the Municipal Hog, interesting

“The impact of taxes on business investment is the focus of a new report from the C.D. Howe Institute, which says a major factor is often overlooked.

Comparing 10 large Canadian cities, the largest in each province, the report considers corporate income taxes, retail sales taxes, land transfer taxes and business property taxes.

These combined taxes - marginal effective tax rate (METR) - impact business investment decisions.

The report’s authors - say that often METR calculations do not include property taxes despite their heavy burden.

"We find business property taxes account for about half the total METR on corporate investment, a share much too large for Canadian governments and other analysts to continue overlooking," says Adam Found.”

Posting advice

Posted by Timothy Ross on December 11, 2018 at 9:13am

Now, this turned bold, I have been guilty of this wrong doing, thanks for the reminder Richard. - TLR

Don’t Be Defensive

By Richard Millington on Dec 11, 2018 07:30 am

The moment you get defensive, take insults personally or react badly to criticism you’ve lost the chance of building a positive relationship with that member (and other members who see your response).

Every interaction is a great opportunity to build a stronger relationship, deepen mutual understanding, and find better solutions to community problems.

You shut down those possibilities when you try to defend your own reputation instead of making the other member feel great.

Defensive responses are selfish responses.

The great irony is the best way to improve your reputation is to ignore the personal insults against you and focus on helping other members solve their problems, feel understood, and more appreciated.

https://youtu.be/5iDPw_qjhtM

Long Term More than a rom-com

Posted by Timothy Ross on December 9, 2018 at 9:47am

Interesting story about the long term. Please enjoy this great example of what you can do if money was in abundance. Slow down and think I think is part of the answer. That might be a good investment on its own. We all a key to that bank and we really should not pretend we only have to wait a hundred years before our clock ticks. Besides we may not have 10,000 years, the scriptures speak to a time when things will change. The hope of our salvation. Till then, raise your hands, set your spirit on fire and move. Your clocks ticking. TLR

Never Enough

https://youtu.be/6jZVsr7q-tE

Compiled from the Hustle folks down in California

Get your own subscription, over a million have already, i glean sparingly , so don’t miss out, they get some cool daily insights https://ambassadors.thehustle.co/

The organization building a 10,000-year clock funded by Jeff Bezos

The Long Now Foundation is on a mission to change the way we think about time — in part, by building a $42m clock inside of a mountain. We sat down with the organization’s exec director to learn a bit more.

BY ZACHARY CROCKETT

The modern workplace likes to “move fast and break things.” It places a premium on speed, efficiency, and instant solutions. It lives by the mantra of building without inhibition (or fear of consequence). It reflects in the form of 5-minute pow-wows and “post-mortems.” It lives in the now, where the “future” is tomorrow.

But some problems simply can’t be solved by 10x-ing, or optimizing, or “growth hacking.” Some problems, it turns out, require time — lotsof it.

In the quest for disruption, long-term thinking is often forgotten. The Long Now Foundation, a non-profit based in the epicenter of the tech world, wants to change that.

You may know Long Now best as the org working with Jeff Bezos to build a $42mclock inside a remote Texas mountain — a 500-foot orb of insanity that will bong once per century and keep time for 10k years. But the clock is more than a mess of gears, bearings, and chimes: It is a colossal monument to doing things “slower and better.”

I recently chatted with Long Now executive director (and clock project lead), Alexander Rose, on the importance of long-term thinking, Silicon Valley’s myopia, and — of course — this mysterious clock everyone’s talking about.

The transcript below has been lightly edited for clarity and length.

Alexander Rose, with clock prototype schematics in the background (via The Appendix)

ZC: First off, what is the Long Now Foundation?

AR: Long Now was founded as a non-profit in 1996 by [legendary composer] Brian Eno, [counterculture icon] Stewart Brand, and [engineer/inventor] Danny HIllis as a way to promote long-term thinking.

As a species, we’re pathologically short-sighted. Our goal is to identify things that are worth thinking about long-term, and highlight some ways that’s being done in the world.

And when you say ‘long-term,’ what are we talking? 10 years? 100 years?

10,000 years.

In work and everyday life, we’re often rewarded for thinking very quickly. Silicon Valley, in particular, puts a premium on breakneck speed. Are there systemic issues with this way of thinking?

The people who started Long Now were very much a part of the first generation of that growth and speed. In a way, they were the canaries in the coal mine. They realized that, while that mindset can lead to interesting and disruptive things, it also leaves some important things out of the equation.

Certain issues — whether it’s world hunger, or faults in our education system — can only be solved by thinking long-term.

If you were tasked with “solving” climate change in 4 years, you would give up immediately. But if you were given 100 years, or 500 years, you might start to imagine how you could lay down the groundwork. Since we aren’t taking the long-term very seriously, we’re also taking some serious issues off the table.

How the Long Now Foundation thinks about time (via Long Now; edited by Zachary Crockett)

Why do you think people have trouble thinking long-term?

Well, the idea of long-term thinking is very much a luxury. If you’re worried about your next meal, or putting a roof over your head, it’s difficult to think 10,000 years out. You have to be in a position where a lot of other things are taken care of.

Can you give me an example of an institution that is thinking in the long-term?

The Svalbard Global Seed Vault [a long-term facility that houses the world’s largest collection of crops in case of disaster] is an interesting case, as are certain nuclear waste facilities (both in the US and Europe) designed to last 10k, or even 100k, years.

There’s also the story of New College, at Oxford. In the 1800s, they noticed the old oak beams in the ceiling of their dining hall were rotting — and they couldn’t buy new ones, since oak had been over-harvested.

But it turned out that the people who’d built the school 500 years earlier had planted a grove of oak trees for this very reason: They knew the beams would eventually rot, and they planned far ahead for it.

Is there a particularly urgent area we’re failing to apply this thinking to?

An asteroid impact has 100% happened, and will happen again. It could be next month, or in 10,000 years — and that could be it for us. For the first time in history, we have the potential to detect and deter asteroids, but we basically have zero programs to do that.

Prototype components of the 10,000-year clock (Rolfe Horn / Long Now)

On that pleasant note, let’s turn to the clock! What’s the story behind this thing?

Back in the ‘80s, Danny Hillis [founder of Thinking Machines] was building the fastest supercomputers in the world. People kept asking him to build things faster and faster, and he became disillusioned. So, he started thinking about building the world’s slowest computer — a machine that would counter the “faster/cheaper” mindset.

He wanted to build something monumental and mythic that served as an icon of long-term thinking. The result was the idea of the millenium clock.

And… what is it?

Basically, it’s a giant clock that will keep time for 10k years.

It will tick once per year (instead of once per second), and bong once per century (instead of once per hour). The cuckoo will come out once every millennium.

We built two smaller prototypes over the years, then began construction of the actual clock in a mountain in West Texas. [Note: The project is funded with a $42m donation from Jeff Bezos, and is being built on land that he owns.]

We’ve had as many as 40 people on site. The ‘clock team’ has around 10 engineers and 10 fabricators.

Why 10,000 years?

It’s when the last ice age retreated, and it was the origin of cities and agricultures. It’s our modern human technological moment in civilization.

We decided that doing things for an eternity was too dwarfing.

How big is it?

The space we have created inside the mountain for the clock is 500 vertical feet.

The largest component is the chime generator that rings a series of 10 notes in a different sequence each day for 10k years. It’s 60,000 pounds and 80 feet tall. The pendulum, by contrast, is only 7 feet tall.

A prototype schematic (via Long Now; edited by Zachary Crockett)

How does it display the time and date?

All the clock dials are astronomic. They show you the current night sky, the moon position and phase, the sun position, and horizons. There is also an area that shows you the Gregorian date. We want to make it easy for the future to reverse engineer it.

The clock always knows what time it is. But all the things that show the time in the clock require people to run it, and update it, and put energy into it.

What have been the biggest challenges with building it?

For one, the natural aspects — everything from mountain lions to bristlecone pine trees, to the heat and cold.

One of the more interesting challenges has been to to design something that is relevant 10k years from now. Clock parts obviously have to work, but they have to look the part as well. Sometimes we’ll come up with a part that is engineered flawlessly, but we’ll look at it and say, ‘Nope, just doesn't feel right’ — and we’ll start it over.

The basic design principlewe’re after starts with a question: If we had burrowed into this mountain and found the clock already there, what do we wish we had found? We settled on this neo-Victorian, mechanical punk vibe. [Detailed schematics here.]

Everything has had to be custom-made, with the exception of some of the screws.

What’s the latest on your progress?

We’re in the middle of installing the clock underground. All the underground work is basically done. Every few months, we’re bringing the next module of the clock into the mountain and integrating it. [A video of recent progress can be found here.]

Clock progress is underway in a remote mountain in Texas, on property owned by Amazon founder, Jeff Bezos (via Long Now)

And when will it be open to the public?

We have a year or so more of installation work, and a year of commissioning. Then, we’ll start to have people up to the clock.

The area is very remote high desert — one of the smallest per-capita areas in the lower 48 states. People will have to hike up 2k feet to see it. Hopefully, it’ll be an experience that gives them some time to think about it all.

I can’t help but ask: What exactly is a $42m clock going to do for the world? Why shouldn’t we use that money to tackle problems that exist right now?

The clock is as much about the present as it is about the people of the future.

There are certainly a lot of hungry mouths that could be fed with the amount of money we’re putting into this project. But if all we do is feed the hungry mouths, there will always be hungry mouths. We want to put a dent in the root cause by changing the way people think.

Also, it is a lot of money, but it’s not more than last summer’s blockbuster rom-com. Hollywood movies come and go; I hope our clock will last much longer, and help the world a little bit more, than a rom-com.

What is the bigger legacy you want to impart with this clock?

I hope someone who stumbles across the clock in the future realizes we built it because we cared about them. And maybe it will inspire other people to build things that last, or to work on more ambitious problems with longer timeframes.

If the decisions you make broaden decision making power for the future, they are probably good. The future will always know more than we know. They’ll always have more than we have. Giving them the opportunity to make more decisions is good.

Carbon Rebates #ForThePeople

Posted by Timothy Ross on December 9, 2018 at 8:35am

The current manifesto for 2019 Carbon Tax redistribution.

Plus some other thoughts from Mrs Tax

https://www.spreaker.com/episode/16163500

https://www.spreaker.com/episode/16163503

Will add additional info in comments as sourced.

Strategicly , I would like to see some requirement other than being a tax filer, and indirectly a voter to be eligible. Some sort of educational component. Perhaps a online course that teaches the basics of how to reduce our own personal carbon footprint.

Different levels gets you more of the credit or bonus credit if you click the box, I love this credit, Thank You Mr Trudeau.

For extra credit, the box that says , you got my vote, please redirect my rebate to your campaign. You would then be eligible for an additional 75% tax credit on your redistributed carbon tax.

I still like the find an easy Billion idea. Those Canadians that have left Canada to work abroad should all have to pay an annual tax. Fair is fair, they may not get a direct annual benefit from our Country, but we launched them. There should be a tribute for that. With almost 10% of Canadians living abroad, and a million immigrants projected need to fill vacancies in the work force, why not, let’s get a little return for our country’s investment in their beginnings. TLR

https://improvingfutures.ning.com/blog/how-to-find-a-billion-dollars

Platinum messenger

Posted by Timothy Ross on December 8, 2018 at 11:07am

https://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-most-important-charts-to-watch-in-2019/

lots of info in charts for review

as we get ready for Christmas and 2019, it’s always a pleasurable tradition to listen to the Queens message.

https://youtu.be/IjTBcqpl2kc

Thank you

Tim Ross, Family Advisor ®

Family Office providing Omega Stewardship ®

Www.BrockShoresFinancial.ca

613-345-0016 Office

613-213-4625 Cell/Text advisor@timothyross.com

Helping Families Achieve ...Life’s Major Goals ®

OMEGA STEWARDSHIP ®

* One Stop Process Driven Approach for Retirement & Income Planning

* Personalized Tax Management Solutions for Individuals & Business Owners

* Confidential Wealth Management Solutions

Mutual Funds through PEAK Investment Services Inc.

Brock Shores Financial #ImprovingFutures

Learn, Engage, Develop, Goals, Enjoy, Responsible ... Join our new online community at www.ImprovingFutures.ca

“On the edge? Move over to our Ledge, our Ledgers fine and worth every dime.”

The Legend

Posted by Timothy Ross on December 8, 2018 at 10:14am

Learn, Engage, Develop, Goals, Enjoy, Responsible ... Join our new online community at www.ImprovingFutures.ca

“On the edge? Move over to our Ledge, our Ledgers fine and worth every dime.”

Edge

Ledge

Ledger

Legend

Peak reflections on a cold Saturday morning, baby it’s cold outside - TLR

https://youtu.be/6bbuBubZ1yE

Thank you

Tim Ross, Family Advisor ®

Family Office providing Omega Stewardship ®

Www.BrockShoresFinancial.ca ;

613-345-0016 Office

613-213-4625 Cell/Text advisor@timothyross.com

Helping Families Achieve ...Life’s Major Goals ®

OMEGA STEWARDSHIP ®

* One Stop Process Driven Approach for Retirement & Income Planning

* Personalized Tax Management Solutions for Individuals & Business Owners

* Confidential Wealth Management Solutions

Mutual Funds through PEAK Investment Services Inc.

Brock Shores Financial #ImprovingFutures

Learn, Engage, Develop, Goals, Enjoy, Responsible ... Join our new online community at www.ImprovingFutures.ca

“On the edge? Move over to our Ledge, our Ledgers fine and worth every dime.”

Building Taxes

Posted by Timothy Ross on December 6, 2018 at 9:53pm

http://realestatetaxtips.ca/answered-your-most-burning-tax-questions-about-building-a-new-house/

some great tips on building , taxes and hst

Ping No Or Yes

Posted by Timothy Ross on December 6, 2018 at 8:22am

Ping, right in the email, another great encouraging message from Mark and Angel.

Saying No, that must be the answer, saying Yes is sometimes a better option. Weighing those two choices is so important if you think about it. Zoom Zoom TLR

.......

Logically, you know it’s okay to...

Say “no”
Speak up
Tell the truth
Believe differently
Change your mind
Prioritize your needs
Learn from your mistakes
Embrace your imperfections
Forgive and seek forgiveness
Begin again, stronger than before

Yet, you often seek the exact opposite when life gets stressful and you’re under pressure.

You do the wrong things even when you know better.

Because your mind has so many little weaknesses. It becomes forgetful and insensible when it’s stressed.

Get to there Website, lots of inspirational resources

http://www.marcandangel.com/2018/11/04/teamwork-how-small-people-create-massive-life-changing-results/

make your own breakfast and cereal , a little extra work, with major investment in your well being, we literally ground the grains and pulled the ears off the corn stalks for this one

Make a major decision with confidence

Maybe it’s taking the time to build a fence to add some structure to your lot lines, Blessed by friends who help move the project along