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IF - by Rudyard Kipling

 

https://youtube.com/shorts/rwwVOegXh0U?si=LBavLRX7-KXNt9d3

 

If
by
Rudyard Kipling



If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And—which is more—you'll be a Man, my son!

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Notes from Rana - Tariffs

"

Let's understand these tariffs

DESCRIPTIVE - obvious stuff, what has happened, just requesting the news

Trump’s new tariffs are the first move in a full-spectrum reset.

$9.2T in debt matures in 2025. Inflation is stubborn.

Start with the debt: $9.2T must be refinanced in 2025. That's massive, and it's all because of the debt taken 5 years ago today - COVID!!

Governments need to raise capital quickly, as people state home, they need to provide income to this sitting at home, so they buried massively, and sold 5 year Bond

The day has come to pay for those bonds,

But, because of Biden and Period raising rates in 2022, it hurt the homeowner and consumers

They are now rolling 5 year Bond to 10 year Bond coming due in 2035

If rolled into 10-yr bonds, every 1 basis point drop in rates saves approx $1B/year; so a 0.5% drop would save $500B over a decade.

Lower yields free up fiscal room—without them, core spending gets crowded out.

How to push yields down with sticky inflation and cautious Fed?

Manufacture uncertainty.
Sweep in with tariffs, spook the markets, trigger risk-off.
Money exits stocks, floods into long-term Treasuries.

A deliberate “detox” to cool the economy and cut refinancing costs.

-PREDICTIVE - what will happen and why with reason, show your work,

But cheap refinancing isn’t enough on its own. Even at lower rates, the debt remains enormous.

That’s where the next lever comes in: cutting the deficit.

DOGE is showing cutting $4B per day. At that pace, they’d shave off $1 trillion by end of Sep 25 (if not May).

With these savings, the big economic pillar to successfully deliver on Scott Bessent's 3-3-3 plan is to get growth UP.

Tariffs come in as a trigger for domestic industrial revival. The thinking is: by making imports expensive, you create room for U.S. producers to step in

But here’s the problem: American factories can’t scale up overnight.

So in the short term, consumers will face higher prices.
The administration knows this. They also know consumers are smart, they can choose to change their spending

That’s why they’re front-loading the pain now, betting that by 2026, the benefits will be visible.

In the meantime, they’re offering some near-term relief.

Tax cuts have already been floated to help offset the cost burden on households.

And while risky, currency devaluation may follow later to make imports cheaper without lifting tariffs.

Don’t forget: tariffs also bring in revenue.

Estimates suggest they could raise over $700 million within the first year.

That’s not a game-changer on its own, but it gives the Treasury a bit more room to maneuver—especially if paired with deficit cuts.

Still, this approach isn’t without risks.

If domestic supply chains can’t catch up, or if global retaliation kicks in, inflation could rise again.

And if that happens, the Fed may be forced to raise rates—which would blow a hole in the low-yield plan. That’s the tightrope.

But, the Trump team has asked OPEC to lose oil prices, which has happened

A common critique is: why impose tariffs before building out the capacity to replace imports?

But that assumes tariffs are the end goal. They’re not.

They’re the starting gun—a way to force movement both inside the U.S. and around the world.

Which brings us to geopolitics.

Before tariffs, Trump’s team signaled a global order reset: pulling back from NATO, cooling EU ties, and opening diplomatic space with Russia, Saudi Arabia, etc. This is also about saving money

Tariffs now serve as leverage to renegotiate terms based on America-First policy.

Expect a lot of bilateral deals in the coming months.

Tariffs will be lowered for countries that offer strategic concessions—on trade, security, or industrial policy.

Those that resist? They'll pay higher costs until they decide to come to the table.

China is the focal point.

Observers have long argued: China isn’t a poor country.
It’s a wealthy, high-capacity state that floods markets with exports its currency artificially low.

Tariffs could be used to force big moves like currency appreciation by China.

Lines will be redrawn with other allies too.

Europe may be pushed to cut exposure to China or negotiate on Ukraine.
India may be forced to cut tarriffs and move closer to U.S. alignment.
Mexico and Canada could face demands to crack down on fentanyl trafficking routes.

So here’s the big picture:

→ Lower yields ease the debt wall
→ Spending cuts restore fiscal discipline
→ Tariffs jumpstart domestic growth
→ And geopolitics gets rewritten in America’s favor

It’s disruption by design—with enormous stakes.

If it works, it’s a defining success:
→ Debt under control
→ Manufacturing reborn
→ Global leverage restored
→ Trumpism vindicated in 2026

If it fails:
→ Inflation
→ Retaliation
→ Lost midterms
→ Strategic drift

-PRESCRIPTIVE - which is what to do

In the US economy there will be clear winners and losers.

Steel, autos, and textiles are likely to benefit—industries that form Trump’s political base. UAW now loves Trump

But retail, and construction—sectors more reliant on imports—could take a hit, especially in swing states.

Tech (especially Software, streaming and Search) is not in involved in tariffs, you still need cloud, data Centres, you still need AI, you need them more now.

That’s the political gamble.

If jobs return fast enough in key states, and inflation remains under control, the tariffs may look like a bold but effective move.

But if prices spike and job creation lags, the strategy could backfire by November 2026.

The Wisconsin seat loss was a warning

Less than 18 months to show results for midterms.
Voters don’t respond to strategies—they respond to prices, jobs and narratives.

FDR had fireside chats, Reagan had Morning in America
Trump needs a similar consistent messaging to Americans

18 months to find out if the gamble pays off.

These are buy points, these events do end, but they'll text you. Just focus on your business

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I am humbled to share this post. Dave Peer a local business owner and fellow accountant serving his clients out of Prescott recently passed suddenly from a massive heart attack. This is a great loss to his family, friends, clients and the community that I know he loved. We have been blessed to be able to take on the responsibility of serving his client base going forward as of yesterday. My team and I look forward to taking care of Dave Peer's clients and we welcome Susan his long term assistant into our Family Office at Brock Shores Financial . It is my prayer that we do so well and honour his legacy and earn the trust and respect that he had amongst so many. There will be a celebration of life for Dave in early June. I will have more details to share later. In the meantime thank you for being in my life in what ever capacity that may be that connects you and me here, it is appreciated. Have a wonderful blessed weekend, and please do me a little favour, tell those closest to you that you love them. Thank you TLR

"Good day everyone, I would like to make a small announcement!

We are now under new ownership; I would like to introduce Tim Ross from Brock Shores Financial and his team have stepped in to take care of Daves clients.

Business is as usual please feel free to contact us Monday to Friday 8:30 am to 4:30 pm @ 613-925-4000

Since 2005
Grenville Accounting Services

Thank You

Susan S

Front Office Manager 

 

In Memory of David Kevin Peer , Rest In Peace

June 16,1962 to February 6, 2025 

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Views from a Hill

Individuals with positive mental attitudes are never found in a rut.
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Individuals with a positive attitude are those who somehow always manage to find something new and interesting even in the most mundane tasks. They don’t allow themselves to be bored, because they are always seeking ways to do things faster, better, and more efficiently. If you make it a practice to find better ways to do the same old things, you will soon be marked for advancement. You will be supervising others who are performing your old job because you’ve proven that you are a person who can be counted on to take the initiative and do what needs to be done without being told. ~ Napoleon Hill

 

Hill  ×  Attitude × Positive × Advancement × Thinking X

 

A cheery title to some great viewpoints, advice from Napoleon Hills writings and emails sent to me, to remind me of some very important life matters. Great reminders, we need to hear, read about this on a regular basis.  If you find yourself here and you want to get your own reminders, I encourage you to click on the link here and sign up for yor own daily inspieration. As always check out the comment section for additional info, that is were I save most matters as I do a lotof that on the fly and it is teh easiest way to save. 

 

https://mailchi.mp/naphill.org/tftd-02-28-25?e=687c10efc5

Thought for the Day list at www.naphill.org

“All the breaks you need in life wait within your imagination…. Imagination is the workshop of your mind, capable of turning mind energy into accomplishment and wealth.” NH

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Gifts

Wages or a Gift



“The wages of sin is death; but the gift of God is eternal life through Jesus Christ our Lord.” (Romans 6:23)

This wonderful verse has been used by the Holy Spirit countless times to bring a person to the point of salvation, and rightly so. Seldom did the author of Scripture pack so much into so few words, and seldom is the gospel of salvation more clearly and succinctly presented.

Perhaps the key to this verse and its teaching is the little word but, for marvelous contrasts hinge on it. In fact, pointing out the parallel but contrasting statements has proven to be an effective witnessing tool. Let us consider these individual contrasts.

First, wages versus gift: Wages are something that must be earned, while a gift cannot be earned; it is free. The wages of employment follow directly from having done the work, just as the wages of sin follow directly from having done the sin. Similarly, the gift of God follows directly from God’s own character. He is a loving, gracious God who freely showers His gifts on those who will accept them.

Second, sin versus God, or sin versus the sinless one: We might even define sin as the opposite of godliness. Sin is the deed that merits the wages, while God is the being who gives the gift. Sin is a wrong action, attitude, or thought, while God is a person, active and loving. Sin takes; God gives.

Third, death eternal versus life eternal: This is conscious existence in separation from God versus conscious existence in communion with God. Sin brings death, surely and permanently; God gives eternal life.

This gift of eternal life is not given capriciously, however; it is based on the work of Jesus Christ, the one who Himself collected the wages of our sin. The sinner who accepts God’s gift, through Jesus Christ, can hardly fail to recognize Him as Lord. JDM
 
 
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Success

What a loaded word. There is many measures.

I was listening to some shorts this morning on YouTube. Here is one that is a good place to start this posting.

https://youtube.com/shorts/EAgTJ1LFkLI?si=nylKO46skdIdN3O6

 

 Mercy is profiled at the start of this posting, he comes to the office with me in the early mornings and relaxes in our chairs and has little naps. I think having your dog hang out with you at the office, truck ride, etc is one of those signs of success. In another example, yesterday I got to meet Frankie , our investment firms VP of Operations dog, Frankie went to work on Saturday as well, our dogs are pretty special to us all and are wonderful indicators of a successful life. 

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For You All

 
DOP_Logo.jpg
You All
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California Open Letter Jan 2025

Received this letter from Pastor Shane Idlemanthis on from California, he raises a number of issues that seem reasonable to me. Thought I would save it here so it doesn't get lost and so we can reflect on it later. 

An Open Letter to California’s Current & Future Governor

With President Trump recently surveying the damage in the Palisades and Pasadena, Californians will elect their next governor in 2026, and the stakes have never been higher. The need to address critical issues confronting this great state is urgent. Being born and raised here, and now serving as a pastor in northern Los Angeles county, I have witnessed the slow deterioration up close. But there is hope…

The Foundation Must be Reinforced

Many do not know that the California Constitution Preamble states: “We, the People of the State of California, grateful to Almighty God for our freedom, in order to secure and perpetuate its blessings, do establish this Constitution.”

From the early days of the Spanish Missions to the Billy Graham Crusades in Los Angeles in the 1950s to the Calvary Chapel movement, God’s hand has clearly been on California. Unsurprisingly, it has the fifth-largest economy in the world and has worldwide influence. God has truly perpetuated California's blessings.

But over the decades, under the banner of “progressivism,” we have strayed away from our foundation noted in the preamble — reliance on God. Ronald Reagan said: “If we ever forget that we are One Nation Under God, then we will be a nation gone under.” This applies to California as well. Once a place of hope, California is now the place where dreams die.

Exiting California

Although many issues play a role in a person’s decision to leave, such as the approach to the pandemic lockdowns, a loss of freedom, an increase in the cost of living, and increasing regulations on corporations and business owners, the focus of this article is on one of the biggest concerns — illegal immigration.

California is a state of thankful immigrants. Most came here to better themselves and to contribute to society. But now things have shifted BIG time.

Everything Can’t Be a Priority

To properly handle immigration, it must be a legal process. Second, we must prioritize citizens and citizenship — if everything is a priority, then nothing is. When an airplane loses cabin pressure, parents put on their oxygen masks first so they can then assist their child. This isn’t selfishness; it’s wisdom. In the same way, the governor is to put the safety of his people first. We are about to pay a heavy cost given the fact many convicted murderers are here illegally and that Gavin Newsom and California Democrats recently reached a $50M deal to Trump-proof the state. Yes, you read that correctly. Confused? So am I.

It Makes No Sense

I have a hard time understanding how many are silent on this issue unless it’s to attract more voters to California. Just recently, California would not allow voting locations to require IDs to vote. Please tell me how this makes sense.

Do we want power and control so much that we will literally sacrifice the lives and security of our citizens for it? God help us!

I’m not naïve; I know that all ideas have flaws, but we need to begin the conversation and get the ball rolling. Our motto must be: Compassion meets Concern. We must show compassion, but also fervently guard our citizens — which is actually the role of government.

•Secure the border and severely curtail crossings while increasing security.

•Use a lie detector or other technology to gauge intent and motives of those without any convictions. I know that this isn’t bulletproof, but it adds another layer of accountability.

•Determine if it is a family who truly needs assistance or if it is a person who might pose a security threat.

•Develop programs to help them learn English within two years.

•There must be a plan in place for employment, not free handouts.

•Streamline the process of becoming a citizen, such as issuing a temporary “pass” while the details are looked into.

Adding measures such as these would show compassion and also ease the fear of deportation. However, it is nearly impossible to vet most of those who cross our borders illegally.

Again, this invasion will not stop until we remove the incentives to come here, such as government handouts of free money, food, and medical care. We need a defensible border and courts that actually enforce the laws. Again, I’m well aware of the challenges, but we’ll miss 100% of the shots we don’t take.

The Greatest Threat

Although securing our borders and communities is essential, it pales in comparison to securing our relationship with God. We walked away from our preamble, mocked God’s Word, and scoffed at His principles — now, we are reaping the whirlwind. We must return to Him: “Return to Me, and I will return to you” (Mal. 3:7).

Like America’s Founders in their time of crisis, it’s time to call for a season of prayer, fasting, and repentance. At this stage in the game, this is the best way to divert disaster.

There still is Hope-4-California.
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Hay Milk Enshrined

Interesting read about farming in Austria, using a loose hay system, certified hay milk production, Enshrined in EU law as a recognized type of milk. Standards have been developed, many historical. 

The "drying box " also caught my attention. 10 hectares a day, saving 25% of the energy loss that normal drying results in, let alone the impact that wet weather would have on forage quality. Hay vs Silage gets a 25 cent per litre CDN premium for organic hay milk in the EU . 

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#Seabuckthorn

#seabuckthorn

"Sea buckthorn is a hardy shrub known for its bright orange berries, which are packed with nutrients and have been used for centuries in traditional medicine. The berries are rich in vitamins C and E, antioxidants, and omega fatty acids, making them a popular ingredient in health supplements and skincare products. The plant is also valued for its ability to grow in poor soil conditions and its role in preventing soil erosion.

Have you ever tried sea buckthorn berries or products made from them? They have a unique, tangy flavor that some people really enjoy!"

https://www.bigskyseabuckthorn.com/history

 

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