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politics (8)

USA Politics Sand Box

Posted by Timothy Ross on November 28, 2023 at 9:14am

Be careful where you dig...

I received this communication this morning, it's worth a read IMHO

US Political Conflict: The Odds of Smart Bipartisan Leadership Are Rising

As you know, I am concerned about what is now happening in the context of the Big Cycle trends in 1) debt and the value of money, 2) internal conflict over wealth and values that is manifest in dysfunctional political conflict (particularly in the US), 3) external conflict over who will have what powers in the new world order (particularly as manifest in conflict between the US and China), 4) acts of nature (particularly climate change), and 5) new technologies (particularly AI). I believe that we are at a juncture and that 2024 will be a pivotal year when we will either work well together to deal with these changes in a smart way—or we will go over the brink into a terrible period.

Re: the external US-China conflict issue, two weeks ago, I was pleased to see a small but very significant stepping back from the brink of war by the United States and China. For reasons that I will explain below, I am also seeing movements in US politics that are giving me reason to believe that having smart, bipartisan leadership is an increasing possibility, though it is still the dark horse scenario.

Background

The United States has become terribly split by big gaps in incomes, opportunities, and values that have led to political extremism that is reminiscent of the 1930-45 clashes between fascists and communists. This extremism has led to irreconcilable differences, dysfunctional government, and win-at-all-cost domestic power struggles that could lead to some sort of civil war. At the same time, the United States faces great challenges arising from 1) large and rapidly rising government debt that has led to the decreasing value of money (i.e., inflation), 2) great internal and political conflicts over how to deal with the large income, opportunity, and values gaps, 3) external conflicts over how the new world order should work, 4) costly and damaging climate changes, and 5) revolutionary changes in technologies that can either help or hurt us. All these challenges need to be well managed. For these reasons, I believe that next year's US elections will be the most important in our lifetimes because their results will lead to either a) dysfunctional fighting that will take us over the edge or b) smart bipartisan leadership that will manage these challenges capably.

The Future

As I see it: 

1) There is only one path to successful leadership in the United States and that is for there to be strong, smart, bipartisan leadership that works against the extremists to pull the country together and make major reforms to the system so that it works well for most Americans.  

2) If we don't get that, there is an uncomfortably high chance of some type of civil war with the extremists fighting and the moderates getting caught in the crossfire. 

3) If either Donald Trump or Joe Biden is elected, it will be bad for the country because it will not give us the smart, bipartisan leadership that we need as the majority of Americans don’t want either of them as president. It is also clear from the polling that a majority don't want extremism.  

4) The betting odds now strongly favor one of them being elected, though which of the two is anyone’s guess. In either case, I believe the election of either will sustain the extreme irreconcilable polarity that will lead to dysfunctional leadership and bad outcomes. 

However, it now appears to me that there is an emerging dark horse possibility that my “dream scenario” could come to pass. To be clear, for my dream scenario to come true, there would have to be smart, bipartisan leadership on both sides controlling their parties so that they operate in smart bipartisan ways. So, rather than rooting for any one candidate or any one side, I am rooting for smart bipartisanship on both sides.  

Here is why I think the odds of this are improving. For it to happen, a few elements have to come together:

The Republicans Replacing Trump with a Strong Candidate Who Can Work across Party Lines 

The senior Republicans who quietly pray that Trump won’t be the nominee and the candidates who are running against Trump have agreed that all the primary candidates except the leading one should drop out early — either after Iowa and New Hampshire or, maybe, after South Carolina — so that Super Tuesday and beyond will be a head-on fight. A lot of money is already being gathered to put behind the Trump alternative once he or she emerges. Then, the real primary race will begin.  

While, to be clear, I am not endorsing anyone, I believe that Nikki Haley is the most likely contender and I believe she fits the bill because she is very smart, very practical, has a great moral compass, and can work well across party lines. She also has a practical understanding of world affairs and domestic economic affairs gained by being the US ambassador to the UN and by creating economic development programs as governor of South Carolina. If she defeats Trump for the nomination, Goliath will have fallen, and everything will have changed.  

The Democrats Replacing Biden with a Strong Candidate Who Can Work across Party Lines

This is a rising, but still very unlikely possibility. It is a rising possibility because on the Democratic side there is a growing realization that Biden could easily lose against a non-Trump candidate like Nikki Haley (and, possibly, to Trump, as well) and that he is probably too old to be up to the challenges of another term. It’s also clear that the electorate would rather pick his successor than have Kamala Harris, whose favorability is worse than Biden’s, replace him. Also, his policies related to debt, inflation, and foreign affairs have created dissatisfaction. So, the conversations about replacing Biden, though not advanced, are now happening. It remains a long shot possibility because Biden doesn’t want to step down and it’s late in the game to make such a change, but this very longshot possibility is emerging. Because of that, there are already five contenders who are jockeying for position, one or two who would fit the bill of being reasonably smart, practical, and inclined to work well across party lines. Also, the Democrats have a smart, strong, and bipartisan House minority leader in Hakeem Jeffries who will almost certainly be on the other side of the Republican team in one way or another. For these reasons, the possibility of both Republicans and Democrats fielding smart teams that can work well across party lines and against the extremists doesn’t look so remote. 

The Emergence of Independent or Third-Party Candidates 

There will be independent or third-party candidates that will seek to attract and empower those in the middle. While it’s unlikely that any of them will get elected because of how politics and the electoral system work, they can gain great power by influencing the outcome by gathering a lot of voter support and using it to influence what will happen. For example, they can a) suggest to those who support them that they vote for the more bipartisan of the other candidates, b) support bipartisan candidates in house and senate races, and c) support the development of a voting block of bipartisan moderates in both houses of Congress. This is the perfect time for a political force that supports a strong middle to emerge.

So, in conclusion, while the odds are still in favor of a Trump-Biden rematch, I believe there is now a significant rising possibility that we will get the sort of smart bipartisan leadership that is needed and that most Americans want. I will be watching closely to see if and how my dream, dark horse possibility plays out, most importantly in the primaries. If it goes the way I hope, the new leadership will be able to deal smartly with the debt/money/economy problems and the productivity/income-gap economic problems by making reforms so that the system works well for most Americans. If, additionally, the US-China rivalry continues to go down the peaceful coexistence through competition path rather than the hot war path, then we won’t go over any of these three brinks and the world will be a better place.

I hope that you will join me in rooting for and, perhaps, even working for these dark horse scenarios.  
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CTC Liberty Initiative

Posted by Timothy Ross on December 8, 2022 at 5:36am

This is an interesting discovery, check it out. If your interested in public service or know someone that is. 

Also, it's  good time to pick up a donation credit if this is worthy of your support and you would like a tax deduction on your taxes.

 

" Liberty Coalition Canada formed the "Christians That Care" (CTC) initiative to help Christians get elected and ultimately influence laws to align with biblical principles.

In 2022, we had 110 Christian candidates from 4 different provinces sign up to get training from CTC for their 2022 municipal elections and 16 of them got elected! CTC candidates received a total of 146,173 votes! We also had 20 CTC candidates come in second place, and 9 CTC candidates came within 250 votes of winning!

In 2023, we plan to expand the "Christians That Care" (CTC) initiative and begin operations in 5 different provinces by hiring dedicated Project Managers, with goals to:

1) recruit 500 new Christian politicians across the country;
2) recruit 500 new Christian campaign managers;
3) recruit 250 youth to our “Youth With A Vision” Political Development Program
4) teach churches how to organize around a local Christian candidate;
5) develop a division that supports currently elected Christian politicians.

In order to reach these goals, WE NEED YOUR HELP! To contribute to LCC’s Advocacy Department, click HERE, select the "Donate to Other Designations" box, select the "Where can we designate your donations" drop-down menu, select "Advocacy," and fill in the rest.

For more specific information about any of these Advocacy items, to get involved individually or as a church, to discuss becoming a candidate, to sign up a youth to our development program or to get more specifics, contact mclark@libertycoalitioncanada.com 

 

Donate | Liberty Coalition Canada

 

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Conservatism Historic Review

Posted by Timothy Ross on November 20, 2021 at 7:23pm

Principlesfrom the late 1800's

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_conservatism_in_the_United_States

https://www.britannica.com/topic/Conservative-Party-political-party-United-Kingdom

https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/conservative-party

 http://www.differencebetween.info/difference-between-left-and-right-politics

 https://thecanadaguide.com/history/the-19th-century/

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Sandbox Politics

Posted by Timothy Ross on November 14, 2021 at 7:33am

I always get the left & right stuff mixed up. I think it's partly because they both play in the sand box and a little of each stick to each other and here in Canada the terms are many times  opposite to what is used in the US. The media we listen to flows between the two countries being so close. What happens in the US effects us more than what happens in Canada effects them. Demografics, Population, Land Mass, Trade is the big one. US is Canada's largest trading "partner" I think. I am no expert on this, however that is the ghist of it. So I am going to just play a bit in the sandbox and dump  some lumps and links here and revist from time to time. ~ Tim 

 

http://www.differencebetween.info/difference-between-left-and-right-politics 

 

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/gist

 

I think of cats playing in the sandbox, just my experience from being on the farm. Looks like the writer of this link below had experience with proper dogs

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/sandbox

 

If you wish, this is an invitation for sharing with your contacts, copy paste or use the sharing feature "Please check out this local EDA Facebook page centered in the area that many of my friends live. There is going to be a provincial election next June , there is lots to think about, IMHO it's #TimeForChange the New Blue Party of Ontario welcomes you to take a firm step in the best direction, one step at a time ~Tim Ross Founding President, CFO, New Blue Party Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands & Rideau Lakes EDA
 
Thinking about stepping, firm step = yes, the best direction = that's subjective kinda, let's think about that, if you step left left left  or you step right right right , your going in a circle and your kinda limited in were you are going to go. Better to march, step, head  in the best directtion.  That direction requires a bit of both , or franly your just chasing your tail or someones coat tail. 
 
 
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Tip Your Toe

Posted by Timothy Ross on October 29, 2021 at 6:06am

There is many things that one can "Tip Their Toe" into in this life we live. Politics is one of those things that qualifies for a little toe tipping. One can always be a little carefree when they tip toe and thus the expression and song about "tip toe through the tulips". First raw thought, getting seriously involved in politics is like tip toeing through the weeds on foggy summer evening, hot but cool, interesting, but dangers linger around every corner, and sometime its bang right in front of you, like the old deer in the head lights expression comes to mind, little train wrecks can pop up were you least expect it derailing your best intentions, or you simply step in it while you take a journey across a pasture field. Some raw sobering first thoughts on the matter.  ~ TLR

 

https://www.facebook.com/New-Blue-Leeds-Grenville-Thousand-Islands-and-Rideau-Lakes-112952681181257

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NEW BLUE Update Feb 2021

Posted by Timothy Ross on February 3, 2021 at 8:47am

Received this email today from the New Blue Party, life happens to everyone folks. Many concerns circulate in society today, everyone should look the options and opinions of others. We should go after the problem, not the people, look at possible solutions. Here is one to consider provincialy. TLR

   

"Dear Timothy,

Thank you for signing up to receive emails regarding the New Blue Party of Ontario!

On January 7th, 2020, the New Blue Party of Ontario became an official registered party with Elections Ontario! An exciting development!

During the process of obtaining official party status, with your support, we also successfully forced the PC government to back down and remove section 8 from their government legislation - Bill 213.  https://www.newblueontario.com/leadership-recap

Section 8 was the PC government's attempt at amending the Marriage Act to give a single cabinet minister the power to revoke the marriage licence of a church officiant if it was deemed to be "in the public interest" and to create - behind closed doors - a "Code of Practice" that every marriage officiant would have to adhere to.

In less than three months, thanks to your support, we were able to stop the PC government's attack on religious freedom and achieve registered party status with Elections Ontario for the New Blue Party of Ontario.

So, why haven't you heard from us in a while?

In early December, I was confronted with another battle - more grave than anything I have encountered before.

After a couple of months of knee pain, doctors diagnosed a tumour in my femur. A biopsy confirmed it was osteosarcoma - a type of bone cancer that has no known causes and that typically affects younger people like the late great Terry Fox.

The good news is the prospects of curing and surviving the illness are much greater today than they were when Terry Fox was diagnosed.

Within days of my diagnosis, I began aggressive chemotherapy treatment that I am half-way through completing. The treatment has been very difficult but over the last few days I have been feeling the best I have in a long time. In the near future, I will also be undergoing major surgery.

The doctors have told me they are treating my diagnosis as curable and it is their hope that the treatment and surgery will rid me of this terrible disease.

As difficult as the last two months have been, I have been grateful to have my wife, Belinda Karahalios, with me, every step of the way. She has looked after me while fulfilling her job as the first New Blue Party MPP at Queen's Park and looking after our young son.

When I waver in my faith, Belinda is there to remind me - the best is yet to come.

Many of you continue to face tremendous adversity and hardship during the continued lockdown. This is in addition to years of tax and spend policies under successive Liberal governments that have been continued under the PC government.

We are committed to continuing to build the New Blue Party of Ontario in time for Ontario's next election scheduled for June 2nd, 2022. We remain resolute in overcoming my current diagnosis and restoring hope for Ontario with a NEW and BLUE political party that respects the taxpayer, small business, and our churches.

Some have emailed to ask my thoughts on latest developments in Canadian politics. Just prior to my diagnosis, I mailed a letter thanking supporters from my candidacy in the 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership race. The letter outlines many of the issues with the so-called "conservative" parties at the federal and provincial levels. If you didn't receive the letter, click here for a copy.

I will write to you again soon with next steps on how you can help us build the New Blue Party of Ontario.

The best is yet to come!

Jim Karahalios
New Blue Party of Ontario


P.S. BE ONE OF THE FIRST TO CONTRIBUTE! Now that the New Blue Party of Ontario has been registered with Elections Ontario, your donation will be eligible for a generous tax credit! If you would like to be one of the first contributors to the New Blue Party visit https://www.newblueontario.com/donate to donate to the New Blue Ontario Fund!


Live in Ontario? DONATE TO THE NEW BLUE ONTARIO FUND TODAY!

P.P.S. Only Ontario residents can donate to the New Blue Party of Ontario. If you live outside of Ontario and would like to help, you can donate to our legal fund which continues to fight the electoral fraud that took place at the 2018 Ontario PC Party convention. Visit https://www.jimkarahalios.ca/donate.


Live outside of Ontario? DONATE TO OUR LEGAL FUND TO FIGHT AGAINST ELECTORAL FRAUD!

 

Copyright © 2021 Jim Karahalios, All rights reserved.
You are receiving this email because you have communicated with Jim Karahalios before or signed up through his website!

Our mailing address is:
Jim Karahalios
PO Box 20046
Cambridge Centre - 355 Hespeler Road
Cambridge, On N1R6B0
Canada

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The tax benefits of donating to a provincial registered  political party are different than federal, both should be looked at, see links below, note Ontario Political are refundable , so even if you have no taxable income you get a real credit ! 

 

https://www.taxtips.ca/filing/politicalcontributions.htm

https://www.taxtips.ca/filing/provincial-political-contribution-tax-credit.htm

 

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Public Policy Dialogue for Charities

Posted by Timothy Ross on November 2, 2018 at 6:46pm

 

http://www.carters.ca/pub/bulletin/charity/2018/chylb434.pdf

 
Terrance S. Carter  B.A., LL.B., TEP, Trade-mark Agent and Ryan M. Prendergast  B.A., LL.B. 
On October 25, 2018, the Department of Finance Canada tabled in the House of Commons a Notice of Ways and Means Motion,  which contained a number of amendments to the Income Tax Act ("ITA")  and other legislation to implement certain provisions previously announced in Budget 2018 and other measures, including amendments to the ITA to modify the rules governing political activities (now referred to as "public policy dialogue and development activities") by charities in Canada. The proposed amendments were introduced as Bill C-86, Budget Implementation Act, 2018, No. 2, ("Bill C-86"),  which received first reading on October 29, 2018, and is included as an appendix to this Charity & NFP Law Bulletin for ease of reference. Bill C-86 significantly improves upon the draft legislation released on September 14, 2018 by the Department of Finance Canada ("September Draft Legislation"),  discussed in last month's Charity & NFP Law Bulletin No. 428
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