us election (1)

2020 US Presidential Election

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We have been flooded with commentary for some time now, today is the day the USA go to vote, the big wrap up. Thought I would share some perspective form some of our sources that study the market and economic implications of th three possible outcomes. 

"Regardless of who wins, we expect that the U.S. and global economy will have a strong recovery next year and short-term interest rates will remain low."

For IA Clarington Investments report click on the link below , it drills down , I have clipped the initial highlights for you below.

2020 Pre-Election Commentary.pdf

Scenario 1: Biden wins
What is the impact of a Biden presidency in the short and long term?

Regardless of who wins, we expect that the U.S. and global economy will have a strong recovery next year and short-term interest rates will remain low.

Global trade sentiment would improve.

A corporate tax increase could have a negative impact on earnings power and the market in general.

 

Scenario 2: Trump wins
What is the impact of a Trump presidency in the short and long term?

We expect economic growth to accelerate at a faster pace under a Trump administration.

We are not expecting a large tax cut.

 

Scenario 3: No clear result
What is the potential impact of a no-decision on election night?

We believe the risk of not having a result for an extended period is being overplayed in the media.

 

One might be wondering what are the current market values ?  Click below for the lastest weekly update that TD Wealth has compiled. 

Weekly Market Report - Nov 2 2020.pdf

Some highlights you can read, YTD Oil is down 41.4% ,  Canadian Markets down in the -9% range, US -4 to + 26% range, Europe -7 to -26 % range, Bonds  7 to 10 % range, Canada Government Bonds 1.25%  , Housing Starts are down a bit  (10% range) Unemployment  @ 7.9% vs 3.5% year end 2019 . 

 

As I glean some more, I will add them here.  No doubt we are driving on a broken road, the pavement is a little bumpy. 

Also check out the comment sections for articles

Some Morning After Commentaries Nov 4 2020 US Presidential Election (Client Friendly).pdf
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