2020 US Presidential Election

[Timothy Ross]

PEAK Disclosure - Click to Be Informed

We have been flooded with commentary for some time now, today is the day the USA go to vote, the big wrap up. Thought I would share some perspective form some of our sources that study the market and economic implications of th three possible outcomes. 

"Regardless of who wins, we expect that the U.S. and global economy will have a strong recovery next year and short-term interest rates will remain low."

For IA Clarington Investments report click on the link below , it drills down , I have clipped the initial highlights for you below.

2020 Pre-Election Commentary.pdf

Scenario 1: Biden wins
What is the impact of a Biden presidency in the short and long term?
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Regardless of who wins, we expect that the U.S. and global economy will have a strong recovery next year and short-term interest rates will remain low.
•
Global trade sentiment would improve.
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A corporate tax increase could have a negative impact on earnings power and the market in general.

 

Scenario 2: Trump wins
What is the impact of a Trump presidency in the short and long term?
•
We expect economic growth to accelerate at a faster pace under a Trump administration.
•
We are not expecting a large tax cut.

 

Scenario 3: No clear result
What is the potential impact of a no-decision on election night?
•
We believe the risk of not having a result for an extended period is being overplayed in the media.

 

One might be wondering what are the current market values ?  Click below for the lastest weekly update that TD Wealth has compiled. 

Weekly Market Report - Nov 2 2020.pdf

Some highlights you can read, YTD Oil is down 41.4% ,  Canadian Markets down in the -9% range, US -4 to + 26% range, Europe -7 to -26 % range, Bonds  7 to 10 % range, Canada Government Bonds 1.25%  , Housing Starts are down a bit  (10% range) Unemployment  @ 7.9% vs 3.5% year end 2019 . 

 

As I glean some more, I will add them here.  No doubt we are driving on a broken road, the pavement is a little bumpy. 

Also check out the comment sections for articles

Some Morning After Commentaries Nov 4 2020 US Presidential Election (Client Friendly).pdf

[Timothy Ross]

https://advisoranalyst.com/2020/11/10/elections-vaccines-what-they-...

[Timothy Ross]

One of my friends in the industry posted this morning , his words   ..... 

"Like everything else in 2021 - This was unprecedented

vote counting stopped so people could get some sleep effectively a 'Lid' was put on the counts.

I'm calling this a Democrat win

Media won, but more importantly China won.

Wish them well.

Now, let's move forward.

Trump can go back to being a Billionaire, and winning by making his business flourish. He wasn't taking his salary as the president.

I wish. him well, he tried very hard to help the country to go after wrongs being done by other countries. But media had it in for him the moment he got elected in 2016.

We will now see how great America becomes under the new leadership.

Expect more money to be spent on Paris Climate accord, expect China trade tariffs to be dropped, making more money for China, expect US to. contribute more money to NATO and other countries to contribute less.

But, more importantly, let's see this virus go away from here, as we see another total lockdown and masks be mandated.

To me, it continues the focus on finance irrespective of who the president and the administration is.

Companies will adjust to higher taxes, by passing it through to consumers. Corporations will continue to keep much of their profits offshore to be taxed less. Investors will adjust to a rising capital gains tax by more careful use of buying and selling. Those people earning over $400K, will adjust to higher taxes by better tax planning, keep renumeration in their corporations and declare less income but have more income.

Student debt hopefully now gets eliminated.

The argument over Affordable care is solved, and your premiums hopefully ďo not increase

We will now see how real 'decency' was, and how effective it becomes. We will now see open borders and hopefully less crimes.

Lets see jobs come back to the US, and not to other countries.

The stock market will do well, no matter who is in, because comparables improve 2021 vs 2020. Whatever Treasury Secretary Elizabeth Warren brings in, they will adjust. I look forward to her increased regulations on banks and Tech. (this is what she campaigned on)

Wish you well President Kamala. Please keep ALL your promises, and don't start any wars. "

 

[Timothy Ross]

https://www.prageru.com/video/do-you-understand-the-electoral-college/

[Timothy Ross]

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/11/03/the-steal-is-on-in-pe...

[Timothy Ross]

https://thehustle.co/11042020-postal-workers-election/

[Timothy Ross]

https://advisoranalyst.com/2020/11/03/the-priority-pyramid.html/

[Timothy Ross]

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/election...

[Timothy Ross]

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/personal-finance/2020-pres...