this out to be interesting by this time next year
https://advisoranalyst.com/2022/12/26/bill-gross-on-the-road-to-nowhere.html/
You need to be a member of Brock Shores Financial #ImprovingFutures to add comments!
this out to be interesting by this time next year
https://advisoranalyst.com/2022/12/26/bill-gross-on-the-road-to-nowhere.html/
You need to be a member of Brock Shores Financial #ImprovingFutures to add comments!
Comments
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/predictions-2023/
https://advisoranalyst.com/2023/01/08/back-to-business-as-usual.html/
some positive perspectives
https://advisoranalyst.com/2023/01/05/capital-group-2023-outlook-lo...
https://advisoranalyst.com/2022/11/08/10-reasons-to-stay-invested-i...
https://advisoranalyst.com/2022/12/27/outlook-2023-bonds-are-back.h...
After a stormy 2022, the forecast looks bright for fixed income.
Key takeaways
Bond yields are likely to remain relatively high at least through the first half of 2023.
Higher yields enable bonds to once again play their historical role as sources of reliable, low-risk income for investors who buy and hold them to maturity.
Opportunities may also exist in 2023 for managers of mutual funds that regularly buy and sell bonds to buy higher-yielding, lower-risk bonds at attractive prices.
Professional investment managers have the research, resources, and investment expertise necessary to identify these opportunities and help manage the risks associated with buying and selling bonds when interest rates are likely to change.
https://advisoranalyst.com/2022/12/28/what-2022-taught-us-about-ris...
"For investors, 2022 has been a tough year. We had bear markets in both stocks, which is fairly common, and bonds, which is not common at all. They both happened at the same time, so rather than being saved by diversification, portfolios got hit twice. Even portfolios that were designed to weather market storms, such as a typical 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bond allocation, were hit harder than anyone expected. 2022 was an exceptional year and not in a good way."
First is that bear markets happen. Not to be flip, but this is something investors regularly forget, especially after a couple of good years. We will see sustained market pullbacks from time to time, and last year will not be the last. In 2022, after some good years, investors were shocked by the market pullback. This should not have been a surprise, as pullbacks happen regularly. So, remember to expect a downturn.
Second, on a related point, when you plan your portfolio, there is nothing wrong with cash or cash-like assets. Cash is a missed opportunity when the market goes up, but it is both a cushion and an option to buy more when the market goes down. Having some cash in the portfolio is not a bad thing, especially in 2023 when you will be getting paid to wait.
Third, and perhaps most important, is that one year—no matter how good or bad—doesn’t achieve or derail your goals. It’s a multiyear process, and if your plan incorporates the fact that bear markets happen and is designed to survive them, then one year really doesn’t matter. This too will pass.
Knowing Your Risk Tolerance
The final point to take away from 2022 is that it has been a valuable lesson for us all. Once again, investors have had a chance to learn how much risk tolerance they really have. If 2022 shook you, then there is no shame in derisking—it may be the smart thing to do over time. It’s better to go slower and get there than to go faster and crash. When you look at your end-of-the-year statements, ask yourself whether you are comfortable with the outcome. If not, talk with your advisor and make changes.
For all you in my network, let's not participate in that part of the "recession" if we can avoid it.
Rana address's the heart of the matter .. "Always approach investing with probabilities, a plan, patience and perspective (The 4 P's) "
In my world, we focus around a few K's ... KYC, KYP, KYS, KYT, KYB, KYM's lots of Know Your ... there is a few more, that is enough for now :)
What are some of your buss words that guide you in your endeavors?
Always approach investing with probabilities, a plan, patience and perspective (The 4 P's)
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:70140778862403...
Always approach investing with probabilities, a plan, patience and perspective (The 4 P's)
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Always approach investing with probabilities, a plan, patience and perspective (The 4 P's)
Probabilities - there is no certainty, just probabilities. Its good to understand them, but also recognize that the probability of being wrong (1 - Probability) is also there. Probabilities are dynamic in the investing world. margin of safety is a form of having a higher probability in your favor.
Plan - have a plan, know your boundaries, ranges and goals. its never a straight line, there are twists and turns. A plan is like a GPS, and when something unfortunate happens, it helps you pivot to attain your destination. But a plan is not foolproof, its a living document. Look for catalysts in your plans that can help get Probabilities in your favor. Midterms and election year tend to have higher probability of downside than non-political years.
Patience - If you have a plan, understand probabilities, the investment world has a strange thing that happens, it tends to recover, probably not at the pace you want, sometimes longer some times shorter, so patience becomes an important tool
Perspective - This is the most challenging, because its easy to lose it when the media and influences around you are very reactionary
Your investment returns are based on Price
Price is susceptible to many influences and bias, but mostly human emotions of greed and fear, greed leads to over leverage, fear leads to margin calls. These create viscious circles
However if your returns were based on the companies revenues, profit margins, earnings, free cash flow growth, you would have a better understanding and perspective of what you are invested in.
The fear thisvyear has been inflation
The only tools the Feds have are reducing liquidity, raising interest rates and implementing Quantitative Tightening. These are weak tools, as inflation does work in itself, higher prices are the cure to higher prices, substitution and replacement effects, competition and prudence help fight inflation.
- Supply chains have improved
- Commodity (Oil) prices have fallen
- Goods prices have fallen
- Service costs will fall too
- eventually wages will come in line
The US Feds want unemployment to rise from 3.7% to 4.7%, their NAIRU, thats about 1.6 million more layoffs, then they can say "Job done"
Yet, many good companies have healthy cash on their balance sheets, have predictable earning models, during lower rates raised cash by issuing long term bonds, they don't need to tap into these higher rates lending facilities.
Yet, these companies prices have fallen because of the perception they are not doing well, will not do well, or are in the media focus for something that has nothing to do with their operations.
We just need to maintain perspective, have patience, understand that probabilities are on our side and keep to our plans.
https://advisor.visualcapitalist.com/visual-guide-to-economic-indic...
https://stocks.apple.com/AqRRJjXYMT26rCczQjpF2Mg
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